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The Rules

Written by LingoFingo from the blog The Survivor XI Prediction League on 18 Apr 2006
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Here you’ll find the rules of the game.  If you played last season, you’ll find that the rules are almost exactly the same, except for an elaboration of the rules for spoilers and other sources (see #6 below).  It basically states that if you get useful information from outside sources such as YOU magazine, you need to let Lingo know.  This is the same policy as was applied to The Amazing Race 7 Prediction League, and Lingo is happy to say that he never had to enforce it.

If you haven’t played before, don’t be discouraged by the length of the rules spelled out here.  It’s not necessary to read the Scoring section now, and most of the rest boils down to common sense.  Take a few minutes now to look over them.


Basics

Questions

Scoring

 


 
PREDICTION  LEAGUE  BASICS

1.  WHO MAY PLAY:

  • A.  Anyone who isn't spoiled for any aspect of the show may play at any time with no restrictions.  Any such person can join in the game at any time.  ("Spoiled" means finding out, either accidentally or on purpose, any information about what happens on the show ahead of its broadcasting.  For more information on spoilers, see #6, "Sources and Cheating.")
  • B. If you are partially spoiled for the season, but you'd still like to play along, send Lingo (not Fingolfin!) a PM or an email explaining everything you already know about the season, and we may be able to work something out whereby you only post some of your guesses publicly, and send the rest to Lingo or Fingolfin, so that other players won't be spoiled by your guesses.  The points a spoiled player may score will be reduced compared to an unspoiled player.  The size of the reduction will depend on what the spoiled player already knows.


2.  HOW TO PLAY:

  • A.  Each week Lingo will post a list of questions (described below).  After he does so, you answer the questions.
  • B. You CANNOT put more than one answer for any question (unless it explicitly calls for it).
  • C.  With the exception of the Eliminated and Other Votes categories, as explained below, there are no restrictions to the combinations of answers you may give (unless we state otherwise for a Bonus question).  If you like, you may hedge your bets and give inconsistent answers--for example, predicting a particular tribe to win Immunity, and simultaneously predicting a person on that tribe to be Voted Off.
  • D. Your answers must be clear and unambiguous.  You may use nicknames established on the show or in TashiTagg.com articles. Otherwise, please refrain from using nicknames.  If we can't tell who you're talking about, we won't accept the answer.  "Nobody", "no one", and "none" are considered equivalent (but "Not Applicable (NA)" is not).


3.  WHERE AND WHEN TO POST:

  • A.  You may post and edit your answers anytime before the start of the episode (usually Tuesdays at 7:30 PM SA time).  Posts that are posted or edited even 2 minutes after the show starts will be disqualified, so make sure you give yourself enough time to post. 
  • B.  If you wish to change your answers, you may either edit your last post (our preference!), or make a new post.  If you make a new post, that post can include the whole answer set, or just the answers you changed.  If you edit a post late in the week, you may wish to point it out to us so that we catch it (we may have already entered your old answers into the spreadsheet).  Feel free to change your answers as many times as you wish (without apologies!).
  • C.  If possible, please post your answers in this forum thread (NOT in the blog reply box!).  However, if you're having trouble accessing TashiTagg.com during the only times you can post, you may instead email your answers to Fingolfin or to Lingo (or have a forum friend post your answers, which is what many past players have done).  If you wish to change your answers, just email us again.  Don't worry if you don't get the answer order exactly right, as long as we can tell which answer is which.


4.
  If you are confused by any of the questions, feel free to ask (publicly or privately) for clarifications.


5.
  We may make mistakes, in awarding points, in posting the week's answers, or perhaps in other ways.  Double-check your scores, and PLEASE don't be at all afraid to correct us, publicly or privately.


6. SOURCES AND CHEATING:
  We're on the honor system here.  If you go and cheat just for a silly little contest like this, for which there will be no prize except the right to gloat, then you're pretty darn pathetic.  And if someone makes some "lucky guesses" over and over again, we may ask Webby to kick your ass!

To be perfectly clear: Cheating includes the use of spoilers in answering the questions.  Basically, a spoiler is any information that would substantially improve your chances of getting a question right.  There are 3 categories of sources from which one could get information about what happens on the show.  These are:

 A.  Sources allowed w/out restrictions:

  • The show itself
  • previews for next episode
  • SABC3 ads for next episode
  • TashiTagg.com articles
  • anything anybody else writes on TT (assuming no idiots post any spoilers)
 B.  Forbidden sources:
  • Any non-SA sources (downloaded episodes, forums, published media, American friends, etc.)
  • Any SA forums or other SA sources where it's clear the source has been exposed to spoilers, or refers to "rumors" (which for our purposes are equivalent to spoilers)
If you like to read Type B sources, we respectfully request that you refrain from playing in the game.

C.  Allowed sources which must be disclosed:

  • ANY other SA websites
  • Other SA sources, such as SA magazines like "YOU" and "tvplus", which gives you any information at all about what happens in Survivor:Guatemala

Type C sources are allowed, but if you ever gain information from such sources that helps you in the game, you need to disclose this information to Lingo.  That is, you should PM or email Lingo any Type C source you use, as well as a summary of what the source said.  You should do this for every episode for which the information helps you. Anyone who fails to disclose such information risks being ejected from the game.  Once such information is disclosed to Lingo, if he determines that it's a big clue, we may decide to post it here for all to see (but not necessarily who gave it to us).

If you have any specific or general questions about what is or isn't a spoiler, feel free to ask.


7.
  Sometimes the previews and commercials give away the answers to some of the questions (though Lingo will strive to avoid  such questions).  If this occurs, please don't mention it in your answer posts.  These questions will just be easy points for observant players.

 
8.  Questions, comments, criticisms, or suggestions on any aspect of the game?  Lay them on us publicly or privately.

 
The Questions

Almost every week, you will answer the following Basic Questions.  Note that, per the "Fingolfin Rule" (which states that Lingo, as the question-supplier, must set up the game to be as non-spoilery as possible), Lingo will give you no indication ahead of time as to whether the challenges are tribal or individual.  You must guess for yourselves!

  1. Who will win the REWARD Challenge in the next episode? You must pick one tribe, one survivor, or "No one" here.
  2. Who will win the IMMUNITY Challenge in the next episode? You must pick one tribe, one survivor, or "No one" here.
  3. Who will be ELIMINATED (e.g. voted off, quit, etc.) in the next episode? You must pick one survivor.
  4. OTHER VOTES: Who will get votes in the next episode but NOT be voted off? You must pick ONE survivor or "No one" here. This name must be different than the name you put down for the survivor Eliminated.
  5. THE WINNER POLL: Who will WIN Survivor: Guatemala? For this question, you will pick one survivor's name each week. It can be the same name each week, or it can be someone different.

 
These basic questions may occasionally be added to, removed, or modified for certain special episodes (e.g. the premiere or the finale).

 
In addition, each week, Lingo will come up with one or more bonus questions.  Most of these will be ordinary questions about the next episode, but some of them, called Delayed Bonus questions, may be about one or more episodes occurring later in the season. Examples are, "In which episode will the Merge occur?" and "Who will the Final 4 Survivors be?"  These questions will obviously not be scored until the answer is revealed on the show.

 
Finally, We'd like you to post your picks using the following format:

Reward: Ulong
Immunity: Koror
Eliminated: Bobby Jon
Other Votes: Stephenie
Winner: Tom
B1: …
etc.

Bold-facing isn't necessary.  Every week we'll type out the format so you can just copy and paste it.

 

A few tips:

1.  Watch the previews and commercials carefully—they often give away answers.

2.  If a bonus question is a quote or otherwise asks for the name of a single person, remember that "Jeff Probst" might be a possible answer.

3.  There are 14 episodes in this season (not counting the Reunion Show).  Once again, there is no recap episode.



 
SCORING

Reward and Immunity:

If a challenge happens to be tribe vs. tribe, you'll get 10 points for a correct guess.

But if the challenge is individual, you'll get points equal to the number of survivors still in the game, divided by the number of survivors who win the prize, times 5 (and rounded to the nearest whole number).

Just to give an example, there have been several individual reward challenges in past seasons in which survivors were paired off (think Colby and Jerri, or Brandon and Frank, or Paschal and Sean). If such a challenge were to pop up when 8 survivors are left, and you pick one of the two who win, you'd get (8 / 2) * 5 = 20 points.  In most weeks, there is only one winner, so the points will be equal to the number of survivors remaining, times 5.

Special Circumstances:

  • You can only pick ONE name in each category, no matter how many winners there are.
  • In the Reward category, points are only awarded for picking the survivor(s) who actually win the challenge, not for any survivor(s) the winner(s) decide to share the Reward with.
  • Any survivor who wins something in the Reward challenge will be counted as a Reward winner and will be worth the same number of points, whether or not all Rewards won are of equal worth.  (For example, in one Vanuatu challenge Eliza won a car and a banquet, while Chris and Ami only won the banquet.)
  • If the Reward "challenge" is an Auction, anyone who buys anything of value (as opposed to being tricked into buying a rock, for example) will be counted as a Reward "winner."  Picking any winner will win you points as described above (i.e. (#survivors/#winners) * 5).
  • If an individual gains Immunity other than through a formal Challenge—e.g. the way Ian and Jolanda won Immunity in the Palau premiere, or an individual being given Immunity by the tribemate who won it in the Challenge—the individual will count as an individual Immunity winner for the purposes of this game.
  • If no one wins Reward or Immunity in the whole episode (e.g. if a challenge doesn't take place, or if it takes place but no one wins it), the only correct answer is "no one." Picking "no one" correctly wins TRIPLE the usual number of points.  For example, if there are 8 survivors left, a correct "no one" guess would be worth 8 * 5 * 3 = 120 points.

 
Eliminated:

In the usual circumstances, the number of points awarded will be equal to the number of survivors still in the game (all tribes), times 5.

Special Circumstances:

  • If you pick a survivor in the "Eliminated" category who got votes to be eliminated but didn't get voted off, you'll get half credit, divided again by the number of players who got votes but weren't eliminated.

 
Other Votes:

You'll win full points for picking any survivor who receives votes to be eliminated, but is not eliminated.  The number of points awarded will be equal to the number of survivors remaining in the game (all tribes), divided by the number of survivors who got votes to be eliminated but didn't get voted off, times 5 (and rounded to the nearest whole number).

 
Special Circumstances:

  • Half credit  (rounded down) will be awarded if your pick in this category gets voted off.
  • If there is no vote, the only correct answer is "no one", which would win you TRIPLE the usual points (i.e. the number of remaining survivors times 15).

 

Example scores when more than 2 players get votes:

There are 18 players still in the game, and a tribe of 9 goes to Tribal Council.  Locke gets voted off with 5 votes, while Sawyer gets 2, Hurley gets 1, and Charlie gets 1.  Thus, there are 3 players who got votes without being eliminated.

In the Eliminated category:

  • Picking "Locke" wins 90 points (18 * 5).
  • Picking Sawyer, Hurley, or Charlie wins 15 points (90 / (2 * 3)).

In the Other Votes category:

  • Picking Sawyer, Hurley, or Charlie wins 30 points (18 * 5 / 3).
  • Picking Locke wins 15 points (30 / 2). 


Winner
:

In this category only, your picks in previous weeks count as much as the pick you make in the current week.  Every week you'll get 10 points for every survivor you've picked in this category that's still in the game, multiplied by the number of times you've picked that survivor.  Thus, in the end, each pick will have won you 10 points for each week that the pick survived past the week you picked them.  Here's an example:

Week 1:
You pick: Hurley
Voted off: Sawyer
Points won this week: 10
Total points so far: 10


Week 2:

You pick: Locke
Voted off: Charlie
Points won this week: 20 (Hurley + Locke)
Total points so far: 10 + 20 = 30


Week 3:

You pick: Locke
Voted off: Boone
Points won this week: 30 (Hurley + Locke + Locke)
Total points so far: 30 + 30 = 60
 

Week 4:
You pick: Jack
Voted off: Locke
Points won this week: 20 (Hurley + Jack)
Total points so far: 60 + 20 = 80

 
This point system awards those who pick the right survivors early, yet still allows you to change your mind if you think your initial pick sucks. It's a bit like investing in the stock market: You'll get the maximum points if you pick the Winner every single week, but it's a risky strategy to pick the same survivor every week, because if that survivor is eliminated, your weekly points will drop back to zero.  If you pick different survivors every week, you'll be relatively little harmed if one of them is eliminated, but on the other hand, you'll get fewer points in the end, because only one of them can be the actual Winner.

 
Special Circumstances:

  • For the Finale, picks will be scored differently:
  • 0 points for every pick who left before the Final 3;
  • 10 points (the usual) for every pick of the 3rd-Place survivor;
  • 15 points for every pick of the 2rd-Place survivor; and
  • 30 points for every pick of the actual Winner.
  • If a survivor leaves the show but then comes back (like in Survivor: Pearl Island's Outcast Twist, for example), the survivor will be treated as if he/she had never left the show; points for the weeks in which the survivor was absent will be awarded retroactively.

 
Bonus questions:

Points will vary per our discretion, but as above will usually be roughly proportional to your odds of guessing right.  In most cases, this will be the number of survivors still on the show.  One point is added if Jeff Probst is a conceivable answer.  For example, if there are 13 survivors left, and Lingo asks you to guess who said some random (gender-neutral) quote, picking correctly will be worth 14 points.

As Delayed Bonus questions are about episodes that won't be aired until later in the season, their points won't be awarded until those episodes have aired and the answer is revealed.




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