Lingo here. I'm finally getting around to posting the statistics on the Survivor Prediction League. So let's get to it! These stats should of course be taken with several grains of salt, the biggest being the
Number of Weeks Played:
devilgirl: |
14 |
shy fly: |
14 |
Paige: |
14 |
batchick: |
14 |
Fingolfin: |
14 |
megan: |
14 |
Shirmell: |
14 |
shakes: |
14 |
Nicivdl: |
14 |
Citanul: |
14 |
Andy: |
14 |
thepersonza: |
14 |
Sapphire: |
14 |
Amazingly: |
14 |
Prawn: |
14 |
Gemstone: |
14 |
Tink: |
14 |
Callandor: |
13 |
Fabjewel: |
13 |
michb: |
12 |
jords: |
11 |
Morticia: |
11 |
Anni: |
11 |
Sunshine: |
11 |
Peapod: |
11 |
Riet: |
11 |
Ruegshana: |
10 |
Ria: |
10 |
Trinity: |
9 |
JCL: |
8 |
Pixie: |
6 |
earthie: |
5 |
Spongebob: |
2 |
We'll first take a look at the individual question categories which composed the "Weekly" scores. The first category was the
Reward Challenges. Here
Nicivdl comes in first with a slight advantage over
Anni, and with
Prawn and
shy fly sharing third.
Reward Points:
Nicivdl: |
156 |
Anni: |
135 |
Prawn: |
100 |
shy fly: |
100 |
megan: |
96 |
Sunshine: |
96 |
Amazingly: |
91 |
Morticia: |
90 |
thepersonza: |
85 |
Citanul: |
81 |
Trinity: |
75 |
shakes: |
71 |
Gemstone: |
71 |
Paige: |
71 |
JCL: |
61 |
michb: |
55 |
Tink: |
46 |
Callandor: |
46 |
Ria: |
41 |
Peapod: |
41 |
Shirmell: |
41 |
Sapphire: |
36 |
devilgirl: |
36 |
Fabjewel: |
36 |
Fingolfin: |
36 |
batchick: |
36 |
Andy: |
30 |
Ruegshana: |
26 |
Riet: |
20 |
Pixie: |
20 |
jords: |
16 |
earthie: |
0 |
Spongebob: |
0 |
The next category was the
Immunity Challenges. In this category,
Anni comes out on top, followed in second by
Tink, while
Nicivdl slips to third.
Immunity Points:
Anni: |
218 |
Tink: |
190 |
Nicivdl: |
183 |
JCL: |
180 |
Citanul: |
143 |
megan: |
138 |
Andy: |
133 |
Amazingly: |
128 |
shakes: |
120 |
Sunshine: |
115 |
Ria: |
115 |
Sapphire: |
113 |
Trinity: |
103 |
Morticia: |
98 |
devilgirl: |
95 |
Fabjewel: |
93 |
Callandor: |
90 |
thepersonza: |
83 |
Fingolfin: |
80 |
batchick: |
60 |
earthie: |
58 |
Peapod: |
55 |
Gemstone: |
53 |
Riet: |
50 |
Ruegshana: |
45 |
Prawn: |
43 |
michb: |
40 |
Shirmell: |
40 |
Paige: |
33 |
shy fly: |
33 |
Pixie: |
20 |
jords: |
10 |
Spongebob: |
10 |
Arguably the most important category to be able to predict is the
Eliminated category (at least if you're trying to figure out who'll win the million). In this category,
Nicivdl wins again, this time by a whopping
100 points over second-place
Tink.
Callandor claims third.
Eliminated points:
Nicivdl: |
458 |
Tink: |
358 |
Callandor: |
306 |
Anni: |
283 |
Sunshine: |
276 |
Amazingly: |
248 |
megan: |
236 |
Paige: |
234 |
JCL: |
215 |
shakes: |
175 |
Ria: |
170 |
Prawn: |
160 |
Citanul: |
145 |
Andy: |
145 |
michb: |
141 |
Peapod: |
140 |
devilgirl: |
135 |
Trinity: |
133 |
Fabjewel: |
120 |
Morticia: |
118 |
Fingolfin: |
113 |
thepersonza: |
110 |
shy fly: |
85 |
batchick: |
83 |
jords: |
78 |
Gemstone: |
75 |
Ruegshana: |
75 |
earthie: |
65 |
Sapphire: |
55 |
Riet: |
35 |
Shirmell: |
20 |
Pixie: |
0 |
Spongebob: |
0 |
Our final regular Weekly category was the Other Votes.
Devilgirl found herself to be particularly adept in this category, taking the gold by a considerable margin.
thepersonza takes second over
Anni by a mere 4 points.
Other Votes points:
devilgirl: |
291 |
thepersonza: |
237 |
Anni: |
233 |
Nicivdl: |
213 |
Shirmell: |
207 |
megan: |
184 |
Morticia: |
183 |
Callandor: |
178 |
Fingolfin: |
175 |
Sunshine: |
171 |
JCL: |
145 |
Sapphire: |
129 |
Tink: |
119 |
Amazingly: |
117 |
Peapod: |
100 |
Fabjewel: |
98 |
Riet: |
91 |
Andy: |
86 |
Ria: |
81 |
batchick: |
79 |
Citanul: |
78 |
Prawn: |
78 |
shakes: |
76 |
shy fly: |
76 |
Paige: |
73 |
Ruegshana: |
43 |
jords: |
33 |
michb: |
26 |
Gemstone: |
20 |
earthie: |
20 |
Pixie: |
19 |
Trinity: |
11 |
Spongebob: |
0 |
Who was best at matching words and deeds to the Survivor who said or did them? That was arguably what most of the non-delayed
Bonus Questions were about. Here, we find
devilgirl once again at the top of the heap, this time by a 50-point margin.
Anni grabs another 2nd-place spot, while
Callandor nabs third.
Bonus Points (non-delayed):
devilgirl: |
672 |
Anni: |
621 |
Callandor: |
546 |
Nicivdl: |
526 |
megan: |
501 |
Sunshine: |
453 |
Tink: |
406 |
Fabjewel: |
359 |
batchick: |
341 |
Fingolfin: |
335 |
Paige: |
313 |
Citanul: |
311 |
Amazingly: |
309 |
Morticia: |
297 |
shy fly: |
288 |
shakes: |
276 |
Riet: |
270 |
Gemstone: |
266 |
Shirmell: |
263 |
JCL: |
263 |
Trinity: |
259 |
Sapphire: |
253 |
Andy: |
250 |
Prawn: |
240 |
jords: |
197 |
Ruegshana: |
197 |
thepersonza: |
186 |
Ria: |
183 |
Peapod: |
148 |
earthie: |
141 |
michb: |
111 |
Pixie: |
59 |
Spongebob: |
17 |
Combining the above 5 categories gives us the total Weekly Points which were used to create the Weekly ranks. Here we naturally find
Nicivdl,
Anni, and
devilgirl in the top 3 spots.
Weekly Points:
Nicivdl: |
1536 |
Anni: |
1490 |
devilgirl: |
1229 |
Callandor: |
1166 |
megan: |
1155 |
Tink: |
1119 |
Sunshine: |
1111 |
Amazingly: |
893 |
JCL: |
864 |
Morticia: |
786 |
Citanul: |
758 |
Fingolfin: |
739 |
Paige: |
724 |
shakes: |
718 |
Fabjewel: |
706 |
thepersonza: |
701 |
Andy: |
644 |
Prawn: |
621 |
batchick: |
599 |
Ria: |
590 |
Sapphire: |
586 |
shy fly: |
582 |
Trinity: |
581 |
Shirmell: |
571 |
Gemstone: |
485 |
Peapod: |
484 |
Riet: |
466 |
Ruegshana: |
386 |
michb: |
373 |
jords: |
334 |
earthie: |
284 |
Pixie: |
118 |
Spongebob: |
35 |
Using the Weekly points above, each week we "awarded" "medals" to the players who came in First, Second, and Third that week. If we were to count up those "medals," we'd come up with the following table. Considering just Gold medals (first-place finishes), we find
Nicivdl,
Anni, and
Callandor on top. But if we look at total medals won, we find that
Anni,
Nicivdl, and
megan did the best.
Medals:
|
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
Total Podium Finishes |
Nicivdl: |
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
Anni: |
3 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
Callandor: |
3 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
Sunshine: |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
Tink: |
1 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
devilgirl: |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
megan: |
0 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
JCL: |
0 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
Paige: |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Fingolfin: |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Fabjewel: |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Sapphire: |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Trinity: |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Peapod: |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Citanul: |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
thepersonza: |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Andy: |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
shy fly: |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
After the Weekly points, the next major question category was the
Delayed Bonus Points. Of course,
Morticia, with her 2380 points for nailing the Final Four, earns the tops spot. (Without it, she'd be in 16th with 151.) In second place is
Tink, followed by
Nicivdl in third and
megan in fourth. Note also that most of the points below came from
DB Question #10 (see the last table), in which you predicted the order of elimination for the last 9 contestants.
Delayed Bonus Points:
Morticia: |
2531 |
Tink: |
217 |
Nicivdl: |
209 |
megan: |
199 |
JCL: |
190 |
devilgirl: |
189 |
Anni: |
187 |
Trinity: |
180 |
Peapod: |
171 |
Paige: |
165 |
Ria: |
164 |
Fingolfin: |
163 |
Citanul: |
160 |
Pixie: |
159 |
thepersonza: |
157 |
Andy: |
154 |
michb: |
143 |
Fabjewel: |
140 |
shakes: |
132 |
Amazingly: |
132 |
Prawn: |
120 |
Shirmell: |
114 |
shy fly: |
111 |
jords: |
111 |
earthie: |
110 |
Sapphire: |
104 |
Gemstone: |
97 |
batchick: |
79 |
Sunshine: |
75 |
Callandor: |
42 |
Riet: |
23 |
Ruegshana: |
20 |
Spongebob: |
13 |
Finally, we come to the last major category, which was the
Winner Poll. Who did the best in consistently picking Survivors who would last a long time? The answer is
Tink, who picked Danielle every single week except the first one (when she picked Steph).
Coming in a surprising Second and Third are
shy fly and
michb, respectively. It's surprising because they did not pick Danielle as often as some of the other contestants who are below them in the table, like
Nicivdl,
Anni, and
Andy. (
Shy fly, in fact, started with 3 picks for Steph, followed with 5 picks for Danielle, then switched to Gary for two weeks, picked Danielle again, switched
again to Rafe for two weeks, and finally picked Dani once more the final week.) The difference is in the first 2-4 weeks of the game, in which
shy fly and
michb picked Steph and Cindy, respectively--Survivors who lasted long into the season--while other players either didn't start playing yet or picked players like Amy and Brooke. Such is the importance of the first few picks!
Meanwhile,
Fingolfin, who picked Steph the most times--every week but once--ends up in 7th, 300 points below the top. That's the difference between picking the Winner and picking the Second Placer.
Winner Poll:
Tink: |
1315 |
shy fly: |
1125 |
michb: |
1100 |
devilgirl: |
1085 |
Nicivdl: |
1055 |
Paige: |
1050 |
Fingolfin: |
1015 |
Anni: |
980 |
Callandor: |
970 |
Trinity: |
965 |
megan: |
955 |
Andy: |
930 |
Shirmell: |
925 |
Sunshine: |
920 |
shakes: |
910 |
Morticia: |
905 |
jords: |
900 |
batchick: |
890 |
Citanul: |
850 |
Ruegshana: |
835 |
Ria: |
790 |
Fabjewel: |
770 |
Riet: |
700 |
thepersonza: |
680 |
Peapod: |
680 |
Amazingly: |
630 |
Sapphire: |
620 |
Prawn: |
600 |
Pixie: |
570 |
JCL: |
430 |
Gemstone: |
320 |
earthie: |
260 |
Spongebob: |
10 |